ROLEX RANKINGS ARE SLOW TO REACT
In order to understand why some LPGA players can be significantly undervalued by sportsbooks. You need to have at least a basic understanding of the Rolex Ranking system. First of all the Rolex Rankings only count the last 104 weeks of tournament play. It does take into account recent performance by weighting the value of the last 13 weeks of performances more highly. A player's overall position in the Rolex Rankings is determined by dividing the number of points they have earned in qualified tournaments by the number of tournaments they participated in over the last 104 weeks. Of course as I mentioned earlier weighing the most recent tournaments higher. This equation then arrives at a Points earned per tournament average number. It's that number that decides your overall ranking. It is also important to note that the number of points earned at each tournament is directly related to the strength of field. So LPGA tournaments generally have the most points.
This is why Jin Young Ko has regained her number 1 Ranking in the world without even playing a tournament yet in 2022. She obviously got off to a bad start in 2020 so as those tournament values become ineligible her average points per tournament go up. Nelly Korda and her were so close in Average points per Tournament that she was able to surpass her without even swinging a club. Which brings us to why the Rolex Rankings can be so slow to react. Due to the 104 week rolling period recent success can take a while to significantly show up in the rankings. Also past failures can end up having a major effect on a Player's ranking without any noticeable improvement in their game.
Imagine what can happen if an LPGA player is playing through injury. Lets say it takes them 4 months to get back in form, and they play two tournaments per month. So for 8 tournaments they score little to no Rolex Ranking points. Most players aim to play around 20 tournaments a year. Due to the injury this player only plays 16. So half of her tournaments can be considered failures. Then two years later those scores which are weighted lighter of course, but still count begin falling off the ledger. They are replaced with a healthy golfer who has hopefully improved over the last two years. Even if they are playing average golf their Rolex Ranking should improve a little at a time after each tournament. It wouldn't fully balance out until at least 3 months had passed in this case. So for those 3 months that player would be significantly undervalued by the Rolex Rankings. Keep in mind the reverse is true also. Players who are playing poorly can artificially maintain their ranking if they played exceptional less than two years ago.
PLAYERS ON THE RISE
PAULINE ROUSSIN-BOUCHARD
Currently ranked 148th on the Rolex Rankings
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard has been very active as an amateur the last few years. Having just qualified for the LPGA tour through Q School for this season she isn't very well known. Avid fans of the LPGA Tour have probably seen her play quite a few times because she has participated in many LPGA tour events the last few years.
Pauline's ranking doesn't realistically represent her success. She was the number 1 amateur in the world for 34 weeks. Partially due to the pandemic she has played alongside and against some of the best players in the world. Quite a few of the LPGA elite decided to play in South Asia during the height of the pandemic, and Pauline was very active on the JLPGA at that time. So she won't be intimidated by her competition. In her first two events this season she already has a T18 at the Gainbridge LPGA, and a T9 at the Drive On Championship. Does that sound like a start the 148th ranked player in the world would have to you? Me neither! I expect her to have continued success this season.
ADITI ASHOK
Currently ranked 110th on the Rolex Rankings
Aditi Ashok turned pro in 2017, but hasn't really been on anyone's radar until last season, and really announced her arrival at the Tokyo Olympics where she narrowly missed winning a medal by finishing 4th. Her play in 2021 was very up and down, but that doesn't tell the full story.
Aditi dealt with continued soreness for most of last fall but played through and now appears to be back to 100%. In her last 3 tournaments she has a Top 10 and two Top 20 finishes. Her weakness is her length off the Tee but that isn't a serious detriment at some of the courses. Her current ranking includes 2020 where she only competed in 5 events and missed the cut in 4 of them. So every tournament she competes in this year will elevate her ranking provided she makes cuts.
It is not out of the question for her to finish inside the Top 50 of the Rolex Rankings if she continues to play at her current level, and avoids injury. I would place Top 10 or Top 20 bets on her at any of the tighter, or shorter tracks this year.
ESTHER HENSELEIT
Currently ranked 104th on the Rolex Rankings
Esther Henseleit had some impressive finishes in 2021, but didn't move very far up the ranks because she turned pro in 2020, played only 9 events and missed the cut in 6 of them. That start has created quite the hole for her to dig herself out of. She is a very streaky player so it's important to see how she has played recently.
She hasn't gotten off to a great start in 2022 with two missed cuts, but looked solid at the Gainbridge and would have made the cut if it wasn't for a final hole Double Bogey. Esther will have to work on her consistency this year but has proven to herself that she can compete at the highest level. Finishes of T7, T5, T4, and Solo 4th in 2021 has to have her feeling confident in 2022.
She has a good all around game with no real weaknesses, so she can adapt to any course. I think course familiarity was an issue in her past, but with a full season of play behind her at a high level. Course familiarity shouldn't be nearly as much of an issue in 2022. She will be in the Top 100 in no time, and she could finish this season in the Top 75.
HYE-JIN CHOI
Currently ranked 54th in the Rolex Rankings
Hye-jin Choi has been playing at a high level for quite a few years. It just wasn't on the LPGA tour all that often so you may not be familiar with her. Some of the finishes she has had over the years may surprise you. In 2017 she finished Solo 2nd at the U.S. Women's Open. In 2018 she finished Solo 2nd at the ISPS Handa Women's Australia Open. In 2019 she finished T5 at the LOTTE Championship. In 2020 she finished T2 at the ISPS Handa Vic Open. If you aren't impressed yet you are pretty damn hard to please.
So far in 2022 she has started off great. A T8 to get things going at Gainbridge LPGA, and a T15 at the Drive On Championship. This is officially her rookie year on the LPGA Tour, and expect it will be a great one. She was absolutely dominant on the KLPGA the last few years, and has played against all of the top players on the LPGA tour at some point in her career.
Her ranking is more a reflection of the points available on the KPLGA than her actual ability. Now that she will be collecting LPGA level points from each event. It is only a matter of time before that is reflected in her ranking. I expect her to break in to the Top 30 this year.
GABY LOPEZ
Currently ranked 45th on the Rolex Rankings
Gaby Lopez has all the skills required to be a Top 20 player on the LPGA tour. It just took her some time to get to that level. That isn't to say that it was all a grind. She got her first win back in 2018.
That win in 2018 qualified her for the Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions in 2020 that she eventually won. Outside of that win at the beginning of the year, 2020 was very unspectacular for Gaby Lopez. Even though she only missed the cut once. She finished 2020 with only 1 Top 10, and 1 Top 20 finish. In 2021 she came into her own. She finished 2021 with 6 Top 10 finishes.
She began 2022 with a Solo 3rd at the Tournament of Champions. If she continues to play at her 2021 level than with each tournament this year her Ranking should improve. A strong finish at even one Major should have her up into the Top 20 by year's end.
HOW TO WAGER ON THESE PLAYERS?
Not every one of these players is an automatic bet every time. Pauline Roussin-Bouchard is generally a worthwhile Top 20 bet because her odds are large enough to make it worth it.
Aditi Ashok has been playing great golf but on specific courses. Betting on her during the Asian swing makes sense because those course tend to be shorter tight courses that require precise shot making skills. The Dow Great Lakes Bay Invitational, and Walmart NW Arkansas Championship are on favorable courses. She tends to play well in windy conditions also so pay attention to the weather.
Esther Henseleit is a streaky player as I mentioned. When she is on it usually last for a few weeks. So don't bet on her until she starts playing well. Then place Top 10, or if you are feeling lucky an Each way bet to Win on her the next couple of tournaments.
I am high on Hye-jin Choi. I expect her to compete for Top 10 finishes every time out. She is familiar with the courses in Asia and Oceania though she should be playing to win when in that Hemisphere. Bet her as such!
Gaby Lopez should be very consistent this year. That being said she is very difficult to predict when it comes to posting Top 5 finishes. If the odds look good I wouldn't be afraid to put an Each way Win bet on her.
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Good Luck
Certainly can't argue with any of these picks Cobe. I'd be tempted to add Lauren Stephenson (89) and Maja Stark (100) into the mix too but these 5 are right near the top of the pile for sure!
Still it's important to compete in the events you're favoured. She defended her title. That days a lot. I am releasing a video tomorrow with players that the Rolex Rankings overrate. A couple additional players that are also underrated at this time but haven't got that much room to move up are Brooke Henderson, and Lydia Ko. I would put Brooke at #5 right now, and Lydia at #2.
Unfortunately the LET doesn't earn you much but a win is a win.
Esther Henseleit recently won the Kenya Open. That should shoot her up the world rankings.