So as we await the first Historical Set drop the market has taking a bit of a dip. So many Collectors are contemplating the same thing, and that has caused some inactivity.
Should we purchase Historical Set packs?
It's completely understandable as to why some of you (myself included) are hesitant to buy a pack. I have been going over the pros and cons in my head every day since it was announced.
PROS
- You will probably need the historic players to complete Team Sets so buying packs should help you by selling what isn't of interest to acquire what is.
- You have a chance to crack open the first Ultimate Moment. Albeit your chances of doing so are ridiculously slim. There is a chance.
- Legendary Moments aren't as scarce in this pack drop as they have been in previous Pack drops. So if you are one of the lottery Pack buyers this drop is tailored to you.
- Some Collectors might be excited about some of the Moments in this Historical Set. Especially if you are a Brett Favre fan you might be counting down the days in anticipation.
CONS
- $84 per pack might be a bit steep for a Community accustomed to paying $50 per pack with no guarantees of getting anything better than a Common.
- Obviously these Moments won't factor into NFL Season Challenges or All Day Fantasy Football.
- I have no actual data to verify this, but I believe the NFT Community is generally young. Historical Moments might not have the same amount of demand on the Marketplace.
- Even for Football fans of that era, many of the Moments aren't that interesting either. I am not a big fan of the Green Bay Packers so for me about half of the Moments being minted are of no interest to me.
Why are so many NFL Stars missing?
So from what I have heard, and it makes complete sense when you examine the Player list is that Brett Favre curated the selection of players and Moments being minted. When I first saw the Moments on Evaluate Market I was confused by many of the Players represented and why so many stars of that era were missed. Then I heard that Brett Favre got to select the players. Well if you're Brett Favre would you want to select players that would overshadow you? It's obvious he made sure he didn't. The best example of this are the quarterbacks he selected to appear in the set other than himself. We are talking about Randall Cunningham, Matt Hasselbeck, Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, Mark Brunell, and Byron Leftwich. How excited are you going to be opening many of those Moments? I own a Seattle Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck jersey and I wouldn't be too thrilled getting one of his Moments. That's right I said one of! There are actually 2 different Moments (1 Rare and 1 Common) being minted of Matt Hasselbeck. So if you are one of the roughly 25% that open a pack containing a Rare Moment you could get 2 different Moments of the same player. With only 52 different Moments being minted for this Set it's actually quite likely you could get the same player in a pack. Matt Hasselbeck isn't the only player with multiple moments being minted. There are actually quite a few with Brett Favre having the most of course. This will make it easier for Collectors looking to eventually have 1 Moment of each player that's ever had a Moment minted in their Collection though.
If you would like to feel a little nostalgic about when NFL Football was really tough, and rules weren't developed to protect Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers. Tune in to our interview with 3 time Superbowl Champion Randy Cross.
How does the Historical set effect our Collections?
From what I can tell it effects our current collections very little. As I had mentioned earlier you may require players from Historical Sets to build a fully complete Team set. Other than that there is little to no crossover with the Series 1 Sets. The Subsets are different in both name and set design. Unlike Series 1 sets the Historical sets can have Moments from multiple Tiers. So a Subset can have Common, Rare, and Legendary Moments in it. Obviously players that are retired from football can't be involved in Game performance Challenges. I would guess that Challenges will be based on Subset completion, Net Spend, or having a particular number of Moments. It's important to know that this is just the beginning of the Historical Set series. Dapper Labs has already said to be ready for future historical sets designed the same way. Highlighted by an NFL star who then selects which players and which Moments will be included in the set. So for Collectors who aren't actually fans of NFL football, and don't want the hassle of tracking player performance. The Historical Sets provide a simpler alternative because completing sets is the most probable way of being rewarded.
So am I going to buy Historical Set 1?
To be honest I just don't know yet. Even after writing this I am still on the fence. I'm sure a lot of you will buy it because the FOMO is real. Some of you will buy it because it's your first opportunity to open an Ultimate Moment. NBA Top Shot has been going for quite a while and it doesn't have Ultimate Moments yet.
I might purchase a Pack, and if I do my wife will also. What it will take for me to buy one is believing my $84 isn't better spent elsewhere on the Platform. For instance would you rather crack a Pack or purchase a Travis Kelce or Alvin Kamara Rare? Tough choice right!
No matter what you decide, the good news is that the NFL All Day platform is doing well. The Marketplace might be in a bit of a dip but that's just an opportunity to acquire more of the Moments you're after. Sure most packs are providing a negative return right now but the values will increase over time. You might have cracked a future bottleneck already. The NFL All Day platform is already taking precautions to avoid many of the mistakes that has NBA Top Shot scrambling to keep Collectors interested in the platform. The future looks good for NFL All Day.
But will you invest in the past?
Corbert de Ronde
Pro Sports Podcasters
NFL Analyst
NFT Investor
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